Daily Macro

Macro Notes - US Earnings Growth? Still Too Concentrated

April 23, 2026

Bipan Rai

Managing Director, Head of ETF & Alternatives Strategy

For the S&P 500, implied earnings growth (over the next 12m) has shifted from 11.5% at the end of 2025 to around 17.5% today. The lion’s share of that earnings growth is expected to come from the Tech sector (Chart 1).

Within the Tech sector itself, we estimate that around 62% of the increase in expected earnings growth is attributable to a single stock (Nvidia). In fact, the entire upward revision for tech can be explained by Nvidia and just six additional equities.

While we’d welcome evidence of a genuine “broadening out” in earnings growth, we have yet to see meaningful contributions from sectors outside of tech. For now, things still look too concentrated and too dependent on the semiconductor story.

True, the picture improves modestly if we adjust the sector weights to be equal – with more of a contribution from energy and materials. But alas, earnings expectations for those sectors are largely beholden to geopolitical risks at the moment.

Chart 1 – Change in Earnings Growth Expectations (Since End-2025)

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