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Portfolio Strategy Report (Q2 2025)
As we update our quarterly portfolio strategy, we’re reminded of an important lesson that often must be re-learned. Namely, that markets are terrible at forecasting non-linear events.
To wit, we are preparing this edition just ahead of the “America First Trade Policy” memorandum is scheduled to be released. That release is expected to recommend additional country-specific tariffs to be implemented based on the principle of reciprocity and other non-tariff barriers.
Additionally, tariff exemptions on USMCA-compliant imports from Canada and Mexico are set to expire on April 2nd while the threat of sector-specific damage on autos, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals still looms large.
Portfolio Strategy Report (Q1 2025)
In the markets, the theme of ‘American exceptionalism’ has received a lot of air play of late – and for good reason. Over the past two years, the benchmark S&P 500 has increased by at least 25%. In fact, since the end of 2018, the index is up by close to 160% with an average annual return of 18.6%. With all due respect to the other large developed markets, it’s only in the U.S. where an investor could have hoped to sniff numbers like that.
And to be sure, investors have been voting with their feet. More than any other time in modern history, the U.S. market is benefitting from an influx of foreign capital. The impact has been profound, with market valuations now at levels comparable to the throes of the Covid-19 shock as well as the ‘tech bubble’ at the turn of the century. Within leading global equity indices, the U.S. accounts for almost 70% of the weight—well over double where things stood a few decades ago.
BMO ETFs Guided Portfolio Strategy Report (Q4 2024)
All prices, returns and portfolio weights are as of market close on September 30, 2024, unless otherwise indicated.
Related Trade Ideas & Podcasts
Podcast: Mid-Year Insights: ETF Industry Flows - June 10, 2025
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Will 2025 be another record year for the ETF industry? In this episode, Bipan Rai, Matt Montemurro, and your host, Erika Toth, look at the latest trends and flows in Canada. Erika Toth is a Director of Institutional & Advisory, Eastern Canada, at BMO Global Asset Management (GAM). She is joined on the podcast by Bipan Rai, Head of ETF Strategy, Exchange Traded Funds, BMO GAM, and Matt Montemurro, Head of Fixed Income & Equity Index ETFs, Exchange Traded Funds. The episode was recorded live on Tuesday, June 10, 2025.
Cooling trade tensions may prove temporary. How to prepare for more market flux.
A full reprieve from an all-out U.S.-China trade war may prove short lived, and we are cautious about whether the terms agreed to will guide the course of additional trade agreements between the United States and other countries. In our view, the U.K.-U.S. pact is also less informative, once you review the details.
Podcast: A Gameplan for the Trade War - April 30, 2025
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Trump’s trade wars are creating ripple effects that are being felt far and wide. In today’s episode, ETF Strategist Bipan Rai, and your host, Zayla Saunders, discuss which sectors are bracing for impact or flying under the radar. They also provide defensive strategies for the months ahead. Zayla Saunders is a Senior Associate of Online Distribution at BMO Global Asset Management (GAM). She is joined on the podcast by Bipan Rai, Head of ETF Strategy, Exchange Traded Funds at BMO GAM. The episode was recorded live on Wednesday, April 30, 2025.
Podcast: Riding the Stock Market Roller-Coaster - April 9, 2025
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Trump’s tariffs have sent stock markets on a roller-coaster ride. Are investors ready for more? In this special episode, ETF Strategist Bipan Rai, and your host, Erin Allen, dive into the four corrective channels to watch and share ideas for defensive portfolio positioning. Erin Allen is Director of Online Distribution at BMO Exchange Traded Funds. She is joined on the podcast by Bipan Rai, Head of ETF Strategy, Exchange Traded Funds at BMO Global Asset Management. The episode was recorded live on Wednesday, April 9, 2025.
Podcast: Guided Portfolio Strategy Q2 2025 - March 31, 2025
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It’s always best to look before you leap. In this special episode, ETF Strategist Bipan Rai, and your host, Erika Toth, share why they are proceeding with a healthy degree of market caution over exuberance and provide a second quarter update on portfolio positioning. Erika Toth is a Director of Institutional and Advisory for Eastern Canada at BMO Global Asset Management (BMO GAM). She is joined on the podcast by Bipan Rai, Head of ETF Strategy, Exchange Traded Funds at BMO GAM. The episode was recorded live on Monday, March 31, 2025.
5 Compelling Reasons to Be Long Gold
Gold tends to be a safe haven asset in times of economic uncertainty for its enduring value and lower correlation1 to traditional asset classes, offering a way to diversify portfolios. Amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, expected rate cuts, and market volatility, gold has been on a record run in 2024. Here are five reasons we believe it will continue to shine.