Sector portfolio: Financials Are in the Sweet Spot
Jan 15, 2026- It’s the beginning of the year and we’re witnessing a rotation into cyclicals. Industrials and Materials were up over 7% in the past month. Utilities and Consumer Staples were down close to 2% during the same period (Chart 1). This reflects a risk-on tone as investors position for growth.
- The challenge for cyclicals is valuation (Chart 2). The industrials sector is trading at a forward P/E of 28, which is above its long-term average. Similarly, materials is trading at a forward P/E of 24 which is also above its historical average.
- We’re already overweight Financials. This has continued to be an attractive sector, given strong performance, while valuations remain reasonable relative to other sectors (forward P/E is 18.3). Participation is broad-based across banks, insurers, and diversified financials, which suggests strength beyond a few large-cap names (Chart 3).
- Energy is cheap but remains a challenged sector. It would screen as the most attractive sector on valuation (lowest forward P/E), but macro headwinds persist given the recent developments in Venezuela, and overall geopolitical uncertainty.
- Real Estate is experiencing significant slowdown as markets price in higher-for-longer rates through 2026. The Fed’s first cut is currently expected around June 2026, limiting near-term upside for rate-sensitive assets.
- For the portfolio: We are making the following changes:
- Industrials: We have shifted from Underweight to Neutral.
- Financials: We are increasing our portfolio weight slightly relative to last month.
- Consumer Discretionary: Our position is still underweight, but weight is slightly higher than last month.
- Real Estate: We have shifted from overweight to neutral
Top pick for the month:
Chart 1 – Sector Performance Chart

Source: Bloomberg, BMO GAM, as of January 6, 2026.
Chart 2 – Earnings and Valuation
| Earnings | Forward P/E | ||||
| Expected (Y/Y%) | Last Month | Change (%) | Next 12m | Z-Score | |
| S&P 500 | 1.36% | 1.24% | 0.12% | 25.45 | 2.32 |
| Tech | 5.58% | 11.36% | -5.77% | 33.86 | 1.78 |
| Communications | 1.73% | 2.50% | -0.77% | 24.36 | 2.1 |
| Financials | 1.03% | 0.69% | 0.34% | 18.33 | 1.5 |
| Utilities | -0.12% | 0.05% | -0.16% | 19.65 | 1.3 |
| Real Estate | -0.95% | -0.60% | -0.35% | 19.8 | -0.37 |
| Discretionary | -2.74% | -1.60% | -1.14% | 32.21 | 1.08 |
| Energy | 1.64% | 0.65% | 0.99% | 17.24 | -0.15 |
| Industrials | -2.20% | -2.08% | -0.12% | 28.44 | 1.89 |
| Healthcare | -0.60% | -0.89% | 0.29% | 20.3 | 1.09 |
| Staples | 1.12% | 0.49% | 0.64% | 21.92 | 1.32 |
| Materials | 2.29% | 2.19% | 0.10% | 24 | 1.21 |
*As of January 6th, 2026. Source: Bloomberg, BMO GAM. Z-Score is a measure of how much a data point varies from the average of the entire data set. A positive z-score says the data point is above average. A negative z-score says the data point is below average. The closer the Z-score is to zero, the closer the value is to the mean. Red = more bearish signal. Green = more bullish signal. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
Chart 3 – Financial Sector Performance, December 5, 2025 -January 6, 2026

BMO Global Asset Management, as of January 6, 2026
Chart 4 – BMO Sector ETF Portfolio for January
| Index | Sector Portfolio | Difference | Weighting | Change from Last Month | |
| S&P 500 | 100.00% | 101.00% | |||
| Tech | 34.13% | 35.00% | 0.87% | Neutral | 0.00% |
| Financials | 13.59% | 15.50% | 1.92% | Overweight | 0.50% |
| Comms. | 10.40% | 10.00% | -0.40% | Neutral | 0.00% |
| Health care | 9.65% | 12.50% | 2.85% | Overweight | 0.50% |
| Disc. | 10.44% | 7.50% | -2.94% | Underweight | 0.00% |
| Industrials | 8.40% | 9.50% | 1.10% | Overweight | 3.00% |
| Energy | 2.83% | 2.50% | -0.33% | Neutral | 0.00% |
| Materials | 1.89% | 2.50% | 0.61% | Neutral | 1.00% |
| Utilities | 2.23% | 1.50% | -0.73% | Neutral | -1.00% |
| Real estate | 1.82% | 2.00% | 0.18% | Neutral | -3.00% |
| Staples | 4.63% | 2.50% | -2.13% | Underweight | 0.00% |
Source: BMO Global Asset Management. For illustrative purposes only. January 2026. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. The portfolio holdings are subject to change without notice.
Chart 5 – BMO Sector ETF Portfolio Weights Relative to S&P 500

Source: BMO Global Asset Management, January 2026. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. The portfolio holdings are subject to change without notice.
Chart 6 – Sector Returns
| Index | 50-day MAVG* | 100-day MAVG* | |
| S&P 500 | 6944.82 | 6813.84 | 6713.66 |
| Tech | 5715.70 | 5726.43 | 5611.37 |
| Communications | 451.70 | 443.16 | 431.18 |
| Financials | 937.48 | 891.02 | 889.25 |
| Utilities | 435.99 | 443.23 | 442.60 |
| Real Estate | 257.13 | 257.18 | 260.15 |
| Discretionary | 1961.67 | 1923.74 | 1910.02 |
| Energy | 700.20 | 685.53 | 680.04 |
| Industrials | 1371.79 | 1305.50 | 1298.04 |
| Healthcare | 1843.51 | 1779.10 | 1704.54 |
| Staples | 861.81 | 865.14 | 872.74 |
| Materials | 602.19 | 559.89 | 566.00 |
As of January 6th, 2026. Source: Bloomberg, BMO Global Asset Management.
Chart 7 – Seasonality Chart (Avg Rank Over Past 35 Years)

Source: BMO Global Asset Management, January 2026. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. The portfolio holdings are subject to change without notice.
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