Bipan Rai joined BMO Global Asset Management in 2024 and currently serves as Head of ETF Strategy, delivering strategic research for the ETF and Structured Solutions team. He is highly regarded for his macroeconomic insights as well as his knowledge of market structure for various asset classes. His focus is on fundamental macro research and the implications for the ETF market place, including economic, monetary and fiscal policy analysis alongside developments in funding and liquidity. Prior to joining BMO GAM, Bipan spent 13 years as a top-ranked strategist at a large Canadian dealer. He has won several awards for his research from various publications (Greenwich Survey, Bloomberg) and is a regular contributor to global business media outlets (BNN/Bloomberg, CNBC, WSJ). He holds an MBA from the Schulich School of Business at York University and a Bachelor of Engineering degree (Aerospace Engineering) from Toronto Metropolitan University.
Canada’s latest budget marks a major pivot toward long-term growth, with C$115B in infrastructure spending alongside substantial allocations for defense and housing. Alongside those investments, the Feds are encouraging private sector participation via regulatory streamlining and tax incentives.
While Quality has had a tough year so far, we expect it to perform going forward. This is largely due to a shifting macro backdrop that favours firms with stable earnings, a still-restrictive Fed monetary policy regime, and exposure to AI.
Canadian investors are facing a complicated macro setup: a softer labour market, sticky inflation risks, tariff uncertainty and a bond market still trying to price the Bank of Canada’s next move. In this episode, Bipan is joined by TD Securities’ Andrew Kelvin to unpack what the latest data means for portfolios, discuss the rates outlook, yield curve, fixed income currency risk and more. This podcast was recorded on Tuesday, May 12, 2026.
The federal deficit came in better than expected for fiscal 2025-26, but the path forward remains wide. Robert Kavcic, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets joins Bipan to break down the 2026 Spring Economic Update, including how Ottawa used its extra fiscal room, what the new sovereign wealth fund could mean in practice, and how Canada’s fiscal position stacks up against its G7 peers. This podcast was recorded on May 1, 2026. FOMC: Federal Open Market Committee
Private credit is under pressure — but how concerned should investors be? Bipan is joined by Mark Jarosz, head of credit alternatives at BMO Global Asset Management, to break down default data, liquidity and retail flows. They explore why institutional capital remains steady, how today’s market differs from the Global Financial Crisis, and what’s actually driving volatility beneath the headlines. This podcast was recorded on April 22, 2026.
From shifting macro regimes to growing stagflation risks, the investment landscape continues to change. In this episode, special guest Bipan Rai and hosts Zayla Saunders and Hilly Cutler discuss central bank divergence, the evolving role of commodities, and what it all means for portfolio construction and positioning in the year ahead. Zayla Saunders is Vice President of ETF Online Distribution at BMO Global Asset Management (BMO GAM). She is joined by Hilly Cutler, Director of Portfolio Consulting and Senior Portfolio Consultant at BMO GAM and Bipan Rai, Head of ETF Strategy, Exchange Traded Funds at BMO GAM. This episode was recorded live on Thursday, April 9, 2026.
From energy shocks and bond market tension to the surprising behaviour of gold and global equities, Bipan is joined by Brent Joyce, chief investment strategist for BMO Private Wealth to explore how investors can stay grounded when markets are moving seemingly minute-by-minute. The pair discuss how disciplined portfolio construction beats reactive decisions, carrying investors through the uncertainty. This podcast was recorded on Monday, April 6, 2026.
The Iran energy crisis will have an uneven impact on an already fragile Canadian economy. Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Capital Markets, joins Bipan to discuss where risks are most acute, and how central bank policymakers may respond. This podcast was recorded live on Tuesday, March 24, 2026.
After a muted initial reaction to the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran and risk that the conflict may rapidly widen, energy markets have started pricing in darker scenarios. In this episode, Bipan is joined by TD Securities commodities strategist Daniel Ghali, where the pair discuss the extent to which crude prices may rise further, as well as implications for the broader global commodities complex. This episode was recorded live on March 4, 2026.
A new floor price for world oil prices as well as rising forecasts for gold are two among many implications traders are weighing as tensions simmer between Iran, Israel as well as the United States. Bipan is joined by TD Securities strategist Daniel Ghali to discuss what impact the conflict has had on commodity and energy price expectations. This podcast was recorded live on June 24, 2025.
As a shifting economic backdrop fans recession fears in the U.S., is a soft landing still on the table? In this episode, ETF Strategist Bipan Rai, and your host, Erika Toth, analyze the market outlook. They also discuss our third quarter investment strategy reports and portfolio construction across asset classes. Erika Toth is a Director of Institutional and Advisory for Eastern Canada at BMO Global Asset Management (BMO GAM). She is joined on the podcast by Bipan Rai, Head of ETF Strategy, at BMO GAM. The episode was recorded live on Wednesday, August 28, 2024.
All prices, returns and portfolio weights are as of market close on March 31, 2026, unless otherwise indicated.
In the Q3 edition of this report, we were more constructive on our outlook for the U.S. fixed income space relative to Canada. This reflected our view at the time that the market was underpricing the risk of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts in the fall, while the Bank of Canada (BoC) was likely at the end of its cycle.
Fast forward three months, we’ve largely seen this story play out. U.S. rates have outperformed as Canadian dollar (CAD)-U.S. dollar (USD) spreads have tightened aggressively across the curve.
As the global trade paradigm shifts, countries are reassessing old economic configurations.
Consider, that with the United States retreating from free trade, developed market economies can now expect the contribution from net trade to economic growth to decline in the coming years. Indeed, those same economies will now need to chart a different course as the degree of access to U.S. markets has changed dramatically.
Q1 2026 earnings season has been off to a strong start. As of Monday (April 27), nearly 30% of the S&P 500 companies have reported, with roughly 80% beating expectations. Despite persistent macro noise, markets are increasingly rewarding earnings delivery rather than reacting to headlines, pushing equities to record highs in April.
Oil prices remain the dominant swing factor across sectors. The market continues to trade off geopolitical headlines, with conflict duration and price direction creating uneven sector tailwinds and headwinds. This has resulted in sharp leadership shifts that are disconnected from longer term fundamentals.
With Q4 2025 earnings largely complete and 75% of S&P 500 companies beating expectations, fundamentals remain constructive. That said, market leadership in 2026 looks very different than in 2025. Energy leads at +23% year-to-date (YTD), while Technology is down -3.4%, highlighting a clear rotation away from last year’s growth leaders.