Bipan Rai

Gold tends to be a safe haven asset in times of economic uncertainty for its enduring value and lower correlation1 to traditional asset classes, offering a way to diversify portfolios. Amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, expected rate cuts, and market volatility, gold has been on a record run in 2024. Here are five reasons we believe it will continue to shine.

From sidewalks to skyscrapers, ETF strategist Bipan Rai, Portfolio Manager Massimo Bonansinga, and your host, Andrew Vachon, drill down on the critical role infrastructure plays in economic growth and recovery. They also discuss how the sector has been impacted by the global trade war and share where they see potential opportunities. Andrew Vachon is Vice President of Product Marketing at BMO Global Asset Management (GAM). He is joined on the podcast by Bipan Rai, Head of ETF Strategy, Exchange Traded Funds, BMO GAM, and Massimo Bonansinga, Portfolio Manager (Industrials and Utilities), Global Equity, BMO GAM. The episode was recorded live on Friday, May 30, 2025.

U.S. House Republican tax legislation backed by President Trump holds potentially significant implications for foreign investors, including Canadians. Bipan Rai sits down with Chris Krueger, Managing Director with TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group to pore over the details, and discuss the potential market implications. This podcast was recorded live on May 27, 2025.

With the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada (BoC) travelling on what appear to be different policy trajectories, Jason Daw, head of North American rates strategy for RBC Capital Markets, joins Bipan Rai to discuss what that means for North American bonds. The pair also discuss the latest Financial Stability Report from the BoC. This podcast was recorded live on May 13, 2015.

In today’s episode, Bipan Rai, Matt Montemurro, and your host, Erika Toth, break down the recent federal election results. They discuss the Liberal government’s priorities, interprovincial trade barriers, the economic outlook — and what it all means for investors. Erika Toth is a Director of Institutional and Advisory at BMO Global Asset Management (BMO GAM). She is joined on the podcast by Bipan Rai, Head of ETF Strategy, Exchange Traded Funds at BMO GAM, and Matt Montemurro, Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income & Equity Index ETFs, Exchange Traded Funds, at BMO GAM. The episode was recorded live on Tuesday, May 6, 2025.

Bipan Rai, BMO ETFs managing director and strategist, ETFs and alternatives, is joined by Alex Singh, alternatives partnerships lead for BMO Global Asset Management to discuss the benefits of hedge funds in an overall portfolio, as well as talk about the new partnership between BMO GAM and Goldman Sachs Asset Management to launch a multi-strategy fund for Canadian investors. Note: the investment product mentioned in this podcast is only available to BMO Nesbitt Burns advisors to date. This podcast was recorded live on May 1, 2025.

Trump’s trade wars are creating ripple effects that are being felt far and wide. In today’s episode, ETF Strategist Bipan Rai, and your host, Zayla Saunders, discuss which sectors are bracing for impact or flying under the radar. They also provide defensive strategies for the months ahead. Zayla Saunders is a Senior Associate of Online Distribution at BMO Global Asset Management (GAM). She is joined on the podcast by Bipan Rai, Head of ETF Strategy, Exchange Traded Funds at BMO GAM. The episode was recorded live on Wednesday, April 30, 2025.

A post-election special from BMO ETFs and alternatives strategist Bipan Rai and guest Ali Jaffery, executive director and senior economist at CIBC. Housing, infrastructure and defence spending are top priorities for the newly elected Liberal government. However, the pair discuss how rising trade and recession risks could upend that agenda and force new stimulus measures instead. This podcast was recorded live on April 29, 2025.

A volatile U.S. dollar amid broader trade uncertainty has many Canadian investors questioning whether to add or pare back their F-X hedges to the greenback. Bipan Rai, managing director of ETF and structure solutions strategy at BMO ETFs, provides a brief history of the dollar’s evolution as the global reserve currency, and his view on where the greenback goes from here. This episode was recorded live on April 22, 2025.

Tariff risk is a significant challenge for the Canadian economy — but it’s certainly not the only one confronting policy makers and the private sector. Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist for CIBC joins Bipan Rai, director of ETF strategy at BMO ETFs to discuss how to handle Trump’s tariff shock, as well as other economic risk factors facing Canada. This episode was recorded live on April 10, 2025.

Gold prices have skyrocketed as investors both big and small have poured into the precious metal seeking its relative stability amid ongoing trade uncertainty and market risks. Daniel Ghali, director, commodities strategy at TD Securities joins Bipan Rai, director of ETF strategy for BMO ETFs to discuss who’s behind gold’s big moves and where prices could go as the year progresses. This episode was recorded live on April 8, 2025.

Trump’s tariffs have sent stock markets on a roller-coaster ride. Are investors ready for more? In this special episode, ETF Strategist Bipan Rai, and your host, Erin Allen, dive into the four corrective channels to watch and share ideas for defensive portfolio positioning. Erin Allen is Director of Online Distribution at BMO Exchange Traded Funds. She is joined on the podcast by Bipan Rai, Head of ETF Strategy, Exchange Traded Funds at BMO Global Asset Management. The episode was recorded live on Wednesday, April 9, 2025.

It’s always best to look before you leap. In this special episode, ETF Strategist Bipan Rai, and your host, Erika Toth, share why they are proceeding with a healthy degree of market caution over exuberance and provide a second quarter update on portfolio positioning. Erika Toth is a Director of Institutional and Advisory for Eastern Canada at BMO Global Asset Management (BMO GAM). She is joined on the podcast by Bipan Rai, Head of ETF Strategy, Exchange Traded Funds at BMO GAM. The episode was recorded live on Monday, March 31, 2025.

Volatile markets have greeted the tariff regime the Trump Administration appears intent on enacting. Ahead of a key April 2^nd deadline for a wave of U.S. reciprocal trade levies to be imposed, Chris Krueger, Managing Director, Washington Research Group, TD Cowen and host Bipan Rai, BMO ETFs Strategist, discuss some of the pressing questions that investors, policymakers and markets are seeking clarity on. This episode was recorded live on March 23, 2025.

Will inflation’s sudden spike push the Bank of Canada to press pause on rate cuts? In this episode, Bipan Rai, Matt Montemurro, and your host, Erika Toth, examine Canada’s latest CPI print. They also discuss the outcome of this week’s Fed meeting, the outlook for the REITs, and fixed income positioning for the months ahead.

In this episode, special guest Sohrab Movahedi, ETF Strategist Bipan Rai, and your host, Skye Collyer, take a deep dive into Canada’s Big Six banks, from first-quarter earnings results to Trump’s tariffs and all the key themes in between. Skye Collyer is a Director of ETF Distribution at BMO Global Asset Management. She is joined on the podcast by Bipan Rai, Head of ETF Strategy, Exchange Traded Funds, at BMO Global Asset Management, and Sohrab Movahedi, Managing Director of Financials Research at BMO Capital Markets. This episode was recorded on Monday, March 10, 2025.

As the world reacts to Trump’s tariffs, questions mount over the far-reaching implications. In this episode, ETF Strategist Bipan Rai, Portfolio Manager Jeremy Yeung, and your host, Michelle Allen, explore what this could mean for the domestic economy, global supply chains, and the Technology sector. Michelle Allen is a Senior Associate of Online Distribution at BMO Exchange Traded Funds. She is joined on the podcast by Bipan Rai, the Head of ETF Strategy at BMO Global Asset Management (BMO GAM), and Jeremy Yeung, a Portfolio Manager (Technology and Communications), Global Equity, at BMO GAM. The episode was recorded live on Monday, February 3, 2025, at 11:00 AM, before Trump and Trudeau confirmed a 30-day moratorium on tariffs.

As a shifting economic backdrop fans recession fears in the U.S., is a soft landing still on the table? In this episode, ETF Strategist Bipan Rai, and your host, Erika Toth, analyze the market outlook. They also discuss our third quarter investment strategy reports and portfolio construction across asset classes. Erika Toth is a Director of Institutional and Advisory for Eastern Canada at BMO Global Asset Management (BMO GAM). She is joined on the podcast by Bipan Rai, Head of ETF Strategy, at BMO GAM. The episode was recorded live on Wednesday, August 28, 2024.

Since the end of last year, our preferred gauge of the trade-weighted U.S. dollar (USD) has declined by several percent. This runs contrary to what you would normally expect as U.S. tariffs should (in theory) lead to a higher valuation for the dollar. However, theory doesn’t necessarily equate to practice – and the greenback’s decline speaks to a change in structural factors that we don’t see dissipating any time soon barring a substantial pivot in U.S. trade and foreign policy.

But before we delve into our rationale, we need to distinguish between the valuation of the U.S. dollar and its reserve currency status. What we are saying is that there is more room for the U.S. dollar to fall. We are not saying that the U.S. dollar will lose its reserve currency status. Instead, we are likely in the antechamber of a more balkanized world of reserve currencies, with the U.S. dollar remaining in the pole position.

As we update our quarterly portfolio strategy, we’re reminded of an important lesson that often must be re-learned. Namely, that markets are terrible at forecasting non-linear events.

To wit, we are preparing this edition just ahead of the ​“America First Trade Policy” memorandum is scheduled to be released. That release is expected to recommend additional country-specific tariffs to be implemented based on the principle of reciprocity and other non-tariff barriers. 

Additionally, tariff exemptions on USMCA-compliant imports from Canada and Mexico are set to expire on April 2^nd while the threat of sector-specific damage on autos, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals still looms large.

Given the backdrop, the priority for our fixed income portfolio is to focus on strong credit and to optimize yield at a shorter duration.

In the U.S., data that tracks the real economy appears to be slowing, but we don’t get the sense that the Federal Reserve is in any hurry to ease policy rates. That’s largely due to the potential from ​‘stickier’ consumer prices as tariffs start to make their presence felt.

In the markets, the theme of ‘American exceptionalism’ has received a lot of air play of late – and for good reason. Over the past two years, the benchmark S&P 500 has increased by at least 25%. In fact, since the end of 2018, the index is up by close to 160% with an average annual return of 18.6%. With all due respect to the other large developed markets, it’s only in the U.S. where an investor could have hoped to sniff numbers like that.

And to be sure, investors have been voting with their feet. More than any other time in modern history, the U.S. market is benefitting from an influx of foreign capital. The impact has been profound, with market valuations now at levels comparable to the throes of the Covid-19 shock as well as the ‘tech bubble’ at the turn of the century. Within leading global equity indices, the U.S. accounts for almost 70% of the weight—well over double where things stood a few decades ago.

One of the more important themes over the past several months has been the sell-off in the long-end across numerous jurisdictions.

Of course, this theme has been led by a combination of macro and idiosyncratic factors – the latter of which has resulted in considerable spillover effects.

All prices, returns and portfolio weights are as of market close on September 30, 2024, unless otherwise indicated.

In our minds, the single most important macro development over the past month has been the Trump administration’s attempt to de-escalate the trade war. Of course, that has been reflected in markets – with the S&P 500 rallying off of its April 7 lows. Indeed, markets have taken their cue from talks between the U.S. and other countries, which have resulted in agreements (most notably with China). Even if such arrangements are temporary, the implicit message is that the U.S. is intent on trimming the extremes of its trade policy – only a few months since it began tariffing other countries’ goods imports.

So here we are. Just a few short months after his inauguration, U.S. President Donald Trump has fired the opening salvo of a global trade war.

While precise estimates on the new U.S. average effective tariff rate vary, there is broad consensus that it is well north of 20%. That is a stark difference from where it was a few months back (around 2-3%), and it signals a return for the U.S. to restrictive trade policies not seen since the days of the Great Depression just under a century ago.