Bipan Rai

Canada’s latest budget marks a major pivot toward long-term growth, with C$115B in infrastructure spending alongside substantial allocations for defense and housing. Alongside those investments, the Feds are encouraging private sector participation via regulatory streamlining and tax incentives.

There has been a lot of demand for the safe haven of gold in 2025, while global central banks as well as investors in general remain bullish. Yet the precious metal is part of a wider commodities complex that holds several benefits that can aid client portfolios.

There is an important and meaningful difference between the current AI capex boom and the Tech bubble from 25 years ago. That being that the current AI spending boom is largely funded by internal cash flows as opposed to external (debt) financing.

One of the more interesting wrinkles of the current rally in Gold is that it’s been accompanied by an uptick in global ETF holdings of the precious metal. That means retail/​institutional investors are getting in on the fun this time around – which is a bit of a departure from what we saw between late 2022 and early 2024. During that period, retail/​institutional liquidation of Gold was accommodated by central bank buying. Why are retail/​institutional investors more inclined to participate now? Three reasons:

While Quality has had a tough year so far, we expect it to perform going forward. This is largely due to a shifting macro backdrop that favours firms with stable earnings, a still-restrictive Fed monetary policy regime, and exposure to AI.

With the final weeks of trading for 2025 underway, Bipan surveys some key data points shaping markets through year-end and into 2026, while diving into two sectors with tailwinds that could benefit investors through next year. This podcast was recorded live on December 2, 2025.

Hundreds of billions of dollars have been allocated to building out compute capacity in recent months — with hundreds of billions more to come next year. Bipan is joined by Malcolm White, BMO Global Asset Management portfolio manager to discuss sector expectations for 2026 and beyond. This podcast was record live on November 25, 2025. 

The AI capex boom is helping spur equity valuations higher, but prompting worries about a potentially painful market correction. Brent Joyce of BMO Private Wealth, joins Bipan to discuss why this cycle truly is different, as well as the outlook for earnings through next year. This podcast was recorded live on October 23, 2025.

Former Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz joins Bipan to discuss the implications of the fourth industrial revolution now underway, and how Canadian policymakers can respond to seismic shifts to the economy. This podcast was recorded live on October 16, 2025. This podcast was recorded live on October 16, 2025.

A surprisingly hardline stance from Beijing on rare earths exports combined with Trump’s renewed threat of steep import tariffs has swiftly thrust global trade tensions back to the forefront for markets. TD Cowen’s Chris Krueger joins Bipan to discuss where the renewed trade war could go from here — amid an ongoing U.S. government shutdown that could go on for weeks or more. This podcast was recorded live on October 14, 2025.

Central banks have been the biggest source of demand for bullion in recent years, however, that is shifting as new entrants alter the balance of power. Daniel Ghali of TD Securities joins Bipan to discuss current market dynamics, as well as the outlook for silver and other metals. This episode was recorded live on September 30, 2025. 

Slack is building in multiple areas of the Canadian economy, while immigration trends that were supporting growth are now reversing. Robert Kavcic, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets joins Bipan to explore the macro themes impacting inflation, the housing market and broader economic backdrop now through next year. This podcast was recorded live on September 22, 2025.

Investors face the conundrum of a U.S. equity market that continues to move higher yet a U.S. dollar headed in the opposite direction, presenting a potential drag on total returns of U.S. assets. Bipan Rai, Managing Director of ETF and Alternatives Strategy for BMO Global Asset Management joins host Zayla Saunders to discuss strategies to shield portfolios from FX risk not just from a weaker U.S. dollar but global exposures. The episode was recorded live on Tuesday, September 16, 2025.

Central bank policy decisions amid mixed economic data loom large over North American credit markets this fall. Vishang Chawla, portfolio manager, active fixed income, joins Bipan to discuss key differences between Canadian and U.S. investment-grade and high yield bond market dynamics, and how slowing growth and inflation risks are affecting each. This podcast was recorded live on September 9, 2025.

Will it be another record-breaking year for Canadian ETF inflows? In this episode, Bipan Rai, Matt Montemurro, and your host, Erika Toth, delve into the latest industry data, exploring the seasonality of flows, currency hedging, fixed income positioning, a slight sector rotation, and a whole lot more. Erika Toth is a Director of Institutional and Advisory for Eastern Canada at BMO Global Asset Management (BMO GAM). She is joined on the podcast by Bipan Rai, Head of ETF Strategy, Exchange Traded Funds, BMO GAM and Matt Montemurro, Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income and Equity Index ETFs, Exchange Traded Funds, BMO GAM. The episode was recorded live on Wednesday, September 10, 2025.

A new floor price for world oil prices as well as rising forecasts for gold are two among many implications traders are weighing as tensions simmer between Iran, Israel as well as the United States. Bipan is joined by TD Securities strategist Daniel Ghali to discuss what impact the conflict has had on commodity and energy price expectations. This podcast was recorded live on June 24, 2025.

Gold prices have skyrocketed as investors both big and small have poured into the precious metal seeking its relative stability amid ongoing trade uncertainty and market risks. Daniel Ghali, director, commodities strategy at TD Securities joins Bipan Rai, director of ETF strategy for BMO ETFs to discuss who’s behind gold’s big moves and where prices could go as the year progresses. This episode was recorded live on April 8, 2025.

As a shifting economic backdrop fans recession fears in the U.S., is a soft landing still on the table? In this episode, ETF Strategist Bipan Rai, and your host, Erika Toth, analyze the market outlook. They also discuss our third quarter investment strategy reports and portfolio construction across asset classes. Erika Toth is a Director of Institutional and Advisory for Eastern Canada at BMO Global Asset Management (BMO GAM). She is joined on the podcast by Bipan Rai, Head of ETF Strategy, at BMO GAM. The episode was recorded live on Wednesday, August 28, 2024.

In the Q3 edition of this report, we were more constructive on our outlook for the U.S. fixed income space relative to Canada. This reflected our view at the time that the market was underpricing the risk of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts in the fall, while the Bank of Canada (BoC) was likely at the end of its cycle.

Fast forward three months, we’ve largely seen this story play out. U.S. rates have outperformed as Canadian dollar (CAD)-U.S. dollar (USD) spreads have tightened aggressively across the curve.

There is a deep contradiction between perception and reality that is currently playing out in the U.S. economic landscape. In many ways, it reminds us of the setting to the famous 1999 movie, The Matrix (a friendly spoiler alert for those that haven’t seen it – skip ahead to the next paragraph). In the movie, the world in which the protagonist wakes up is a simulated reality powered by an engine that most don’t see. This ​“invisible engine” dynamic helps us square the inconsistency between the prevailing narrative of U.S. economic fragility and incoming data that shows resilience.

Despite the recovery in broad risk over the past few months, the underlying issue remains the same. The decades-long integration of global trade — with the United States at the hub — has been permanently disrupted. And unless we see a complete reversal from the Trump administration, the current regime of higher trade barriers is likely here to stay.

What’s more, we also appear to be in the early stages of something more nefarious — a capital war. As congressional members pass the ​“One, Big, Beautifull Bill Act”, a provision like Section 899, even if excluded, should send a reminder to non-U.S. investors that foreign investment is becoming less welcome than it has been in the past.

As the global trade paradigm shifts, countries are reassessing old economic configurations.

Consider, that with the United States retreating from free trade, developed market economies can now expect the contribution from net trade to economic growth to decline in the coming years. Indeed, those same economies will now need to chart a different course as the degree of access to U.S. markets has changed dramatically.

Q3 2025 earnings have been broadly resilient, with 87% of S&P 500 companies beating earnings per share (EPS) estimates as of October 31. But beneath the strong headline numbers, earnings breadth is narrowing. Markets are increasingly rewarding companies and sectors that meet two critical tests: 1) Turning AI/capex investments into credible gains; 2) Operating in sectors with structural quality (cash flow resilience, healthy balance sheets)

One of the more prominent reasons for why the U.S. Health Care sector has underperformed this year has been top-down policy uncertainty (i.e., tariffs) and what that could potentially mean for margins. But in early October, the Trump administration announced that it had come to an agreement with a large pharmaceutical/​biotech firm (Pfizer) that has flipped sentiment by an appreciable degree.

Among the myriad of events that have come up over the past few weeks, the most relevant one for U.S. sector investors might just be the end of the de minimis tariff exception. Indeed, as of August 29, the U.S. has started levying tariffs on imports that are less than US$800 at the designated rate under IEEPA1 (depending on the product’s country of origin).

Now that the Fed is easing again, the question is what will happen to the massive amount of assets that are held in money market accounts. Yield sensitive investors may seek to move into dividend-oriented equity strategies or products, but that also equates to a move up the risk spectrum.

Analyzing the historical track record of key composite leading indicators provides an understanding of where we are in the current cycle, and contextualizes the expected performance of various areas of the economy.

We’ll acknowledge that ​“infrastructure” doesn’t typically generate the same type of excitement that other areas might. For instance, ​“crypto” sounds mysterious and fun while ​“AI” has the type of buzz you’d associate with something cool and trendy.

We recently rewatched the classic film​Raiders of the Lost Ark, and couldn’t help but draw a comparison between market participants expecting the Fed to cut rates aggressively to Indiana Jones running away from the boulder toward safety in the opening scene.