Quarterly Model Portfolios
Guides

Fixed Income Strategy Report (Q1 2026)

All prices, returns and portfolio weights are as of market close on December 30, 2025, unless otherwise indicated.

Jan. 13, 2026

The winds are shifting 

  • The North American fixed income space remains at a crossroads. In the front-end, U.S. yields are expected to be under some pressure given the potential for additional Federal Reserve (Fed) cuts (due to a deteriorating labour backdrop) while Canadian dollar (CAD) yields are likely to better supported. The big caveat for the latter is (of course) the status of the United States – Mexico – Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade deal in the coming quarters.
  • The swaps market appears to be pricing the Fed appropriately (two cuts). While we’re reluctant to endorse the current market pricing of a Bank of Canada (BoC) rate hike by the end of 2026, we’ll concede that there is still plenty of time for pricing to course correct.
  • Further out the curve, we continue to see risks to both the U.S. and Canadian curves from term premium spillover from large markets such as Japan. True, those risks feel less acute now – particularly for the U.S. – but we’re still cautious given the rise in fiscal deficits outside of North America and what that means for long-end supply.
  • Outside of the credit space, valuation seems reasonable for both markets at this point. We’re keeping our broad exposure for Canada unchanged (via ZDB – BMO Discount Bond Index ETF), while we’re adjusting our broad exposure to the US market to completely hedge against currency risks (via ZUAG/F – BMO US Aggregate Bond Index ETF).
  • For our sub-sovereign exposure, we are trimming some of our allocation to ZBI (BMO Canadian Bank Income Index ETF) and reallocating towards ZFH (BMO Floating Rate High Yield ETF). This partial switch reflects a few things:
    • Our preference for floating rate exposure relative to fixed for U.S. credit.
    • Our belief that there is limited scope for CAD credit to outperform relative to the U.S. from here.
  • Having said this, we still like maintaining exposure to ZBI given the favourable yield-to-duration ratio.
  • On the currency front, we’re of the view that the CAD will outperform relative to the U.S. dollar (USD) into Q1. This is largely because we envisage a further reduction in speculative CAD shorts from here, which should result in downside for USD/CAD in the coming months.

Table 1 – Income portfolio for Q1 2026

ETF name

Ticker

Weight

Duration

Year-to-month

Management fee

Exposure

Position

BMO Discount Bond Index ETF

ZDB

15.0%

6.92

3.37%

0.09%

Canada

Core

BMO Laddered Preferred Share Index ETF

ZPR

20.0%

3.17

5.91%

0.45%

Canada

Core

BMO Canadian Bank Income Index ETF

ZBI

20.0%

2.01

3.76%

0.25%

Canada

Core

BMO Floating Rate High Yield ETF

ZFH

10.0%

0.22

5.33%

0.40%

United States

Tactical

BMO US Aggregate Bond Index ETF (Hedged Units)

ZUAG.F

15.0%

6.00

4.29%

0.08%

United States

Core

BMO AAA CLO ETF (Hedged Units)

ZAAA.F

20.0%

0.13

0.20%

United States

Tactical

Source: BMO Global Asset Management. Model portfolio for illustrative purposes only. The information contained herein is not, and should not be construed as, investment, tax or legal advice to any party. These are not recommendations to buy or sell any particular security. Particular investments and/​or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to the individual’s risk profile and investment objectives. Professional advice should be obtained with respect to any circumstance. 

* Weighted average yield to maturity: The market value-weighted average yield to maturity includes coupon payments and any capital gain or loss that the investor will realize by holding the bonds to maturity. 

Source: Bloomberg, BMO Asset Management Inc., as of December 312025.

Table 2 – Changes from Q4 2025

Sell/​trim

Ticker

Old weight

(% change)

New weight

Buy/​add

Ticker

Old weight

%

New weight

BMO Canadian Bank Income Index ETF

ZBI

25%

-5%

20%

BMO Floating Rate High Yield ETF

ZFH

0%

10%

10%

BMO Short-Term US TIPS Index ETF

ZTIP

5%

-5%

0%

BMO US Aggregate Bond Index ETF (Hedged)

ZUAG/F

10%

5%

15%

BMO US Aggregate Bond Index ETF

ZUAG

5%

-5%

0%


Source: BMO Global Asset Management, as of December 312025.

Table 3 – Performance of holdings

Ticker

Year-to-date

1-month

3-month

6-month

1-year

2-year

3-year

5-year

10-year

Since inception

Inception date

ZPR

18.27%

2.35%

4.65%

9.47%

18.27%

22.39%

17.02%

10.33%

6.94%

3.57%

2012-11-14

ZUAG.F

5.29%

-0.40%

0.49%

2.07%

5.29%

2.58%

2.29%

2023-01-23

ZDB

2.24%

-1.37%

-0.46%

0.85%

2.24%

3.18%

4.31%

-0.55%

1.72%

2.27%

2014-02-10

ZFH

7.04%

0.67%

1.57%

3.68%

7.04%

9.23%

10.59%

7.07%

5.95%

5.39%

2014-02-10

ZAAA.F

Returns are not available as there is less than one year’s performance data.

2025-04-30

ZBI

5.56%

0.26%

0.98%

3.04%

5.56%

8.70%

8.14%

4.19%

2022-02-07

Source: BMO Global Asset Management, as of December 31, 2025. The portfolio holdings and asset allocations are subject to change without notice and individual holdings only represent a percentage of portfolio holdings. They are not recommendations to buy or sell any particular security.

Chart 1 - Credit summary

Chart 1 - Credit summary
Source: BMO Global Asset Management, as of December 31, 2025. Credit quality summary of model fixed income portfolio. Ratings are composite scoring from various ratings agencies for the underlying securities. BMO Global Asset Management. Model portfolio for illustrative purposes only. 

Chart 2 - Term summary

Chart 2 - Term summary
Source: BMO Global Asset Management, as of December 31, 2025. Term summary showing breakdown of average duration of model portfolio securities. BMO Global Asset Management, Bloomberg. Model portfolio for illustrative purposes only.

Q1 2026 BMO ETFs guided portfolio strategy report 

Q1 2026 BMO ETFs tax efficiency model portfolio report

Disclaimers

For advisor use only.

The portfolio holdings and asset allocations are subject to change without notice and individual holdings only represent a small percentage of portfolio holdings. They are not recommendations to buy or sell any particular security.

Any statement that necessarily depends on future events may be a forward-looking statement. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Although such statements are based on assumptions that are believed to be reasonable, there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations. Investors are cautioned not to rely unduly on any forward-looking statements. In connection with any forward-looking statements, investors should carefully consider the areas of risk described in the most recent prospectus.

This communication is intended for informational purposes only and is not, and should not be construed as, investment and/​or tax advice to any individual. Particular investments and/​or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual’s circumstances. Individuals should seek the advice of professionals, as appropriate, regarding any particular investment. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The viewpoints expressed by the author represents their assessment of the markets at the time of publication. Those views are subject to change without notice at any time without any kind of notice. The information provided herein does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy, or an offer to sell securities nor should the information be relied upon as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 

Index returns do not reflect transactions costs or the deduction of other fees and expenses and it is not possible to invest directly in an Index. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with investments in exchange-traded funds. Please read the ETF Facts or prospectus of the BMO ETFs before investing. The indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all dividends or distributions and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any unitholder that would have reduced returns. Exchange-traded funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated.

For a summary of the risks of an investment in the BMO ETFs, please see the specific risks set out in the BMO ETF’s prospectus. BMO ETFs trade like stocks, fluctuate in market value and may trade at a discount to their net asset value, which may increase the risk of loss. Distributions are not guaranteed and are subject to change and/​or elimination.

CLOs are floating- or fixed-rate debt securities issued in different tranches, with varying degrees of risk, by trusts or other special purpose vehicles (“CLO Issuers”) and backed by an underlying portfolio consisting primarily of below investment grade corporate loans. The BMO AAA CLO ETF pursues its investment objective by investing, under normal circumstances, at least 85% of its net assets in CLOs that, at the time of purchase, are rated AAA or the equivalent by a nationally recognized statistical rating organization. The BMO BBB CLO ETF pursues its investment objective by investing, under normal circumstances, at least 75% of its net assets in CLOs that are BBB-rated at the time of purchase. 

AAA herein refers to the order of payments, should there be any defaults, and does not represent the ratings of the underlying loans within the CLO. If there are loan defaults or the CLO Issuer’s collateral otherwise underperforms, scheduled payments to senior tranches take precedence over those of mezzanine tranches (a tranche or tranches subordinated to the senior tranche; e.g., AAA tranches are the most senior, while BBB tranches are mezzanine-level), and scheduled payments to mezzanine tranches take precedence over those to subordinated/​equity tranches. The riskiest portion is the Equity” tranche, which bears the first losses and is expected to bear all or the bulk of defaults from the corporate loans held by the CLO Issuer serves to protect the other, more senior tranches from default.

Distribution yields are calculated by using the most recent regular distribution, or expected distribution, (which may be based on income, dividends, return of capital, and option premiums, as applicable) and excluding additional year end distributions, and special reinvested distributions annualized for frequency, divided by current net asset value (NAV). The yield calculation does not include reinvested distributions. Distributions are not guaranteed, may fluctuate and are subject to change and/​or elimination. Distribution rates may change without notice (up or down) depending on market conditions and NAV fluctuations. The payment of distributions should not be confused with the BMO ETF’s performance, rate of return or yield. If distributions paid by a BMO ETF are greater than the performance of the investment fund, your original investment will shrink. Distributions paid as a result of capital gains realized by a BMO ETF, and income and dividends earned by a BMO ETF, are taxable in your hands in the year they are paid. Your adjusted cost base will be reduced by the amount of any returns of capital. If your adjusted cost base goes below zero, you will have to pay capital gains tax on the amount below zero. 

Cash distributions, if any, on units of a BMO ETF (other than accumulating units or units subject to a distribution reinvestment plan) are expected to be paid primarily out of dividends or distributions, and other income or gains, received by the BMO ETF less the expenses of the BMO ETF, but may also consist of non-taxable amounts including returns of capital, which may be paid in the manager’s sole discretion. To the extent that the expenses of a BMO ETF exceed the income generated by such BMO ETF in any given month, quarter, or year, as the case may be, it is not expected that a monthly, quarterly, or annual distribution will be paid. Distributions, if any, in respect of the accumulating units of BMO Short Corporate Bond Index ETF, BMO Short Federal Bond Index ETF, BMO Short Provincial Bond Index ETF, BMO Ultra Short-Term Bond ETF and BMO Ultra Short-Term US Bond ETF will be automatically reinvested in additional accumulating units of the applicable BMO ETF. Following each distribution, the number of accumulating units of the applicable BMO ETF will be immediately consolidated so that the number of outstanding accumulating units of the applicable BMO ETF will be the same as the number of outstanding accumulating units before the distribution. Non-resident unitholders may have the number of securities reduced due to withholding tax. Certain BMO ETFs have adopted a distribution reinvestment plan, which provides that a unitholder may elect to automatically reinvest all cash distributions paid on units held by that unitholder in additional units of the applicable BMO ETF in accordance with the terms of the distribution reinvestment plan. For further information, see the distribution policy in the BMO ETFs’ prospectus. 

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