Tech is No Longer Leading S&P 500 Returns
Mar 6, 2026- With Q4 2025 earnings largely complete and 75% of S&P 500 companies beating expectations, fundamentals remain constructive. That said, market leadership in 2026 looks very different than in 2025. Energy leads at +23% year-to-date (YTD), while Technology is down -3.4%, highlighting a clear rotation away from last year’s growth leaders.
- Energy is the best‑performing sector YTD, driven largely by a geopolitical risk premium rather than earnings strength. The rally has been headline driven, with U.S. – Iran tensions pushing oil prices to near seven‑month highs. At the same time, earnings expectations have softened versus last month, suggesting recent gains may be more tactical than sustainable.
- Technology and Financials are both sending caution signals. Technology remains a core allocation but has underperformed in 2026 as AI‑related concerns and rising performance dispersion weigh on sentiment. Earnings remain constructive, supported by capex, yet valuations are still elevated.
- Financials continue to look attractive on valuation, but muted performance indicates that macro and rate uncertainty are still restraining investor confidence.
- Materials continue to pair strong YTD returns with the most significant upward earnings revisions across sectors. Unlike Energy, performance here is supported by improving fundamentals, suggesting durability if global demand remains resilient.
- Industrials are showing a healthy mix of solid YTD performance and improving earnings expectations, consistent with steady capex trends and infrastructure-related demand. While valuations have risen, earnings momentum remains the key support.
- Defensives are regaining relevance amid lingering uncertainty. Staples have delivered strong YTD returns as investors seek earnings stability, though valuation multiples have expanded meaningfully. Health Care, by contrast, offers a more balanced defensive profile, combining modest performance with steady earnings revisions and reasonable valuations.
We are making the following changes to our sectors portfolio:
- Tech & Financials: We have shifted from overweight to neutral.
- Discretionary: We are trimming our weight relative to last month. Our position is still underweight.
- Industrials: We have shifted from neutral to overweight.
- Materials: We are increasing our portfolio weight slightly relative to last month. Our position is still overweight.
- Utilities: We are increasing our portfolio weight slightly relative to last month. Our position is still neutral.
- Staples: Our position is still underweight, but weight is slightly higher than last month to be in line with index weight.
Sectors in focus:
- Industrials (BMO SPDR Industrials Select Sector Index ETF – ZXLI)
- Materials (BMO SPDR Materials Select Sector Index ETF – ZXLB)
Please see Chart 3 below for the monthly tactical changes in the model BMO Sector ETF Portfolio.
Chart 1 – Sector Performance Chart

Chart 2 – Earnings and Valuation
| Earnings | Forward P/E | ||||
| Expected (Y/Y%) | Last Month | Change (%) | Next 12m | Z-Score | |
| S&P 500 | 13.12% | 2.12% | 11.00% | 21.99 | 1.25 |
| Tech | 8.17% | 5.77% | 2.40% | 31.71 | 1.51 |
| Communications | 10.84% | 1.27% | 9.58% | 21.68 | 1.45 |
| Financials | 5.75% | 2.82% | 2.93% | 15.71 | 0.61 |
| Utilities | 11.44% | -0.25% | 11.68% | 19.29 | 1.22 |
| Real Estate | 1.39% | -0.59% | 1.99% | 20.28 | -0.12 |
| Discretionary | 8.65% | -2.23% | 10.87% | 27.65 | 0.54 |
| Energy | -1.99% | 0.93% | -2.92% | 20.95 | 0.01 |
| Industrials | 7.31% | 3.59% | 3.71% | 27.26 | 1.64 |
| Healthcare | 5.06% | -0.94% | 5.99% | 19.15 | 0.87 |
| Staples | 1.66% | 1.17% | 0.48% | 24.98 | 2.43 |
| Materials | 24.16% | 2.15% | 22.02% | 21.63 | 0.72 |
Source: Bloomberg, BMO Global Asset Management, as of February 26, 2026
Z-Score is a measure of how much a data point varies from the average of the entire data set. A positive z-score says the data point is above average. A negative z-score says the data point is below average. The closer the Z-score is to zero, the closer the value is to the mean. Red = more bearish signal. Green = more bullish signal. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
Chart 3 – BMO Sector ETF Portfolio for March 2026
| Index | Sector Portfolio | Difference | Weighting | Change from Last Month | |
| S&P 500 | 100.00% | 100.00% | |||
| Tech | 32.98% | 33.00% | 0.02% | Neutral | -2.00% |
| Financials | 12.70% | 13.00% | 0.30% | Neutral | -2.50% |
| Comms. | 10.43% | 10.00% | -0.43% | Neutral | 0.00% |
| Health care | 9.59% | 12.50% | 2.91% | Overweight | 0.00% |
| Disc. | 9.96% | 7.00% | -2.96% | Underweight | -1.00% |
| Industrials | 9.20% | 11.00% | 1.80% | Overweight | 2.00% |
| Energy | 3.40% | 2.50% | -0.90% | Neutral | 0.00% |
| Materials | 2.11% | 4.00% | 1.89% | Overweight | 1.50% |
| Utilities | 2.41% | 2.00% | -0.41% | Neutral | 1.00% |
| Real estate | 1.96% | 2.00% | 0.04% | Neutral | 0.00% |
| Staples | 5.27% | 3.00% | -2.27% | Underweight | 1.00% |
Source: BMO Global Asset Management. For illustrative purposes only. March 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. The portfolio holdings are subject to change without notice.
Chart 4 – BMO Sector ETF Portfolio Weights Relative to S&P 500

Chart 5 – Sector Returns
| Returns (%) | |||||||
| Index | 50-day MAVG* | 100-day MAVG* | 5-day | Month-to-Date | Quarter-to-Date | Year-to-Date | |
| S&P 500 | 6908.86 | 6907.44 | 6837.30 | -0.01% | -0.43% | 0.93% | 0.93% |
| Tech | 5484.56 | 5601.91 | 5660.79 | 0.00% | -1.85% | -3.51% | -3.51% |
| Communications | 447.14 | 455.31 | 445.51 | -0.93% | -6.49% | -1.16% | -1.16% |
| Financials | 871.10 | 895.30 | 887.28 | 0.03% | -1.88% | -4.44% | -4.44% |
| Utilities | 477.79 | 444.25 | 447.41 | 1.80% | 8.70% | 10.14% | 10.14% |
| Real Estate | 276.95 | 263.27 | 261.28 | 0.20% | 5.69% | 8.60% | 8.60% |
| Discretionary | 1854.14 | 1929.63 | 1919.11 | -0.52% | -5.46% | -3.85% | -3.85% |
| Energy | 840.98 | 760.17 | 719.92 | 0.32% | 6.98% | 22.35% | 22.35% |
| Industrials | 1494.08 | 1405.17 | 1350.74 | -0.32% | 6.72% | 13.78% | 13.78% |
| Healthcare | 1831.84 | 1823.25 | 1783.69 | 0.36% | 1.62% | 1.44% | 1.44% |
| Staples | 988.15 | 925.42 | 896.85 | 1.18% | 6.27% | 14.25% | 14.25% |
| Materials | 670.34 | 625.22 | 590.01 | 0.46% | 7.42% | 16.70% | 16.70% |
Source: Bloomberg, BMO Global Asset Management, as of February 26, 2026
Chart 6 – Seasonality Chart (Avg Rank Over Past 35 Years)

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