Broadening Participation — not a Defensive Pivot
Feb 3, 2026- We are still in the early days of the 2025 Q4 earnings season, but the market’s tone has already shifted. January marked a decisive move away from the narrow leadership that defined much of last year and toward broader participation across sectors.
- This rotation unfolded against a steady and important backdrop of continued strength in real consumer spending. This highlights that investors are rotating within growth, not hiding from it.
- Chart 1 captures the rotation clearly. Energy leads with strong return momentum across both one‑month and three‑month horizons. Materials and Industrials follow with similarly robust positioning, supported by infrastructure‑driven demand. Health Care and Communications Services also sit firmly in positive territory, underscoring their consistency as the market transitions toward more widely distributed leadership.
- Underlying consumer resilience helped steady cyclical sectors and reinforced the broader theme for early 2026: leadership is widening alongside genuine economic resilience.
- Staples have benefited from a short‑term valuation reset as volatility pushes investors toward defensive pockets, but muted earnings growth continues to limit upside. Its role remains stabilizing rather than conviction‑driven, supporting an underweight view despite recent recalibration.
- Valuation dispersion remains a defining feature (Chart 2). Energy and Financials stand out as the only sectors with valuations below trend, giving them the strongest mix of support from both fundamentals and relative value. Real Estate and Utilities remain inexpensive but continue to lack earnings momentum.
- Tech and Communications remain important to the broader narrative, though with a more selective tone. AI‑linked demand is still supportive, but elevated valuations narrow the room for error.
- Financials sit at the center of the market’s transition. The sector continues to trade at the lowest valuations in the market while showing improving earnings momentum. Regulatory headlines added pressure in January, yet we are maintaining our overweight positioning given the sector’s combination of valuation support, earnings upgrades, and structural resilience.
For our sector portfolio - We are making the following changes (see chart 3):
- Materials: We are increasing our portfolio weight slightly relative to last month.
- Staples: Our position is still underweight, but weight is slightly higher than last month.
- Real Estate: Our position continues to be neutral, but the weight is lower relative to last month.
Top pick for the month
Chart 1 – Sector Performance Chart

Chart 2 – Earnings and Valuation
| Earnings | Forward P/E | ||||
| Expected (Y/Y%) | Last Month | Change (%) | Next 12m | Z-Score | |
| S&P 500 | 1.56% | 1.42% | 0.15% | 25.29 | 2.21 |
| Tech | 5.67% | 5.54% | 0.13% | 33.18 | 1.82 |
| Communications | 1.26% | 1.28% | -0.01% | 24.88 | 2.38 |
| Financials | 2.55% | 1.27% | 1.28% | 16.98 | 1.03 |
| Utilities | -0.39% | -0.26% | -0.13% | 19.54 | 1.38 |
| Real Estate | -0.67% | -0.88% | 0.21% | 19.98 | -0.28 |
| Discretionary | -2.43% | -2.70% | 0.27% | 32.56 | 1.1 |
| Energy | 0.93% | 1.71% | -0.78% | 18.77 | -0.08 |
| Industrials | -2.02% | -1.99% | -0.03% | 28.77 | 1.65 |
| Healthcare | -1.15% | -0.17% | -0.98% | 20.31 | 1.09 |
| Staples | 1.08% | 1.16% | -0.08% | 23.47 | 1.9 |
| Materials | 2.86% | 2.40% | 0.46% | 25.030000000000001 | 1.46 |
As of January 23rd, 2026. Source: Bloomberg, BMO GAM. Z-Score is a measure of how much a data point varies from the average of the entire data set. A positive z-score says the data point is above average. A negative z-score says the data point is below average. The closer the Z-score is to zero, the closer the value is to the mean. Red = more bearish signal. Green = more bullish signal. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
Chart 3 – BMO Sector ETF Portfolio for February 2026
| Index | Sector Portfolio | Difference | Weighting | Change from Last Month | |
| S&P 500 | 100.00% | 100.00% | |||
| Tech | 33.45% | 35.00% | 1.55% | Overweight | 0.00% |
| Financials | 13.01% | 15.50% | 2.49% | Overweight | 0.00% |
| Comms. | 10.60% | 10.00% | -0.60% | Neutral | 0.00% |
| Health care | 9.70% | 12.50% | 2.80% | Overweight | 0.00% |
| Disc. | 10.56% | 8.00% | -2.56% | Underweight | 0.00% |
| Industrials | 8.62% | 9.00% | 0.38% | Neutral | 0.00% |
| Energy | 3.05% | 2.50% | -0.55% | Neutral | 0.00% |
| Materials | 1.99% | 3.00% | 1.01% | Overweight | 0.50% |
| Utilities | 2.23% | 1.00% | -1.23% | Underweight | 0.00% |
| Real estate | 1.84% | 1.00% | -0.84% | Neutral | -1.00% |
| Staples | 4.95% | 2.50% | -2.45% | Underweight | 0.50% |
Source: BMO Global Asset Management. For illustrative purposes only. February 2026. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. The portfolio holdings are subject to change without notice.
Chart 4 – BMO Sector ETF Portfolio Weights Relative to S&P 500

Chart 5 – Sector Returns
| Index | 50-day MAVG* | 100-day MAVG* | |
| S&P 500 | 6915.61 | 6845.41 | 6774.79 |
| Tech | 5608.11 | 5669.90 | 5662.84 |
| Communications | 459.09 | 450.51 | 438.26 |
| Financials | 881.71 | 898.76 | 891.27 |
| Utilities | 432.35 | 438.59 | 443.44 |
| Real Estate | 260.21 | 257.65 | 259.76 |
| Discretionary | 1989.40 | 1933.87 | 1925.36 |
| Energy | 756.77 | 698.04 | 687.40 |
| Industrials | 1389.93 | 1328.44 | 1311.86 |
| Healthcare | 1834.27 | 1809.89 | 1735.43 |
| Staples | 922.40 | 877.97 | 874.15 |
| Materials | 631.68 | 577.75 | 570.45 |
As of January 23rd, 2026. Source: Bloomberg, BMO Global Asset Management
Chart 6 – Seasonality Chart (Avg Rank Over Past 35 Years)

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