Daily Macro

Macro Notes - The Coexistence of Gold and Copper Rallies

January 09, 2026

Saakshi Mehta

Vice President, ETF & Alternatives Strategy

Gold and copper are rallying simultaneously, a rare but telling phenomenon. This reflects a macro environment where growth fears are easing while uncertainty persists, creating space for both defensive and cyclical metals to perform. Gold, a traditionally defensive metal, remains supported by persistent geopolitical uncertainty, and central bank reserve diversification. Copper, a pro-cyclical metal, is responding to tighter global supplies in the face of increasing demand.

To briefly summarize:

Copper rally = growth barometer and generally pro-cyclical.
Gold rally = flight to safety and hedge against uncertainty (currency concerns, geopolitical uncertainty, etc).

Structural demand for both metals reinforces this dynamic. AI infrastructure, electric vehicles and energy transition provides a baseline for global copper demand, while reserve and haven demand supports gold. This structural shift in demand allows cyclical and defensive metals to coexist.

The dual rally is justified in an environment of moderate growth and persistent uncertainty – such as the environment we’re in now. Our constructive view on metals into 2026 remains intact. Maintaining exposure to gold (via ZGLD, ZWGD) alongside industrial and materials exposure (ZMT) should boost performance while also mitigating portfolio volatility.

Chart 1 : Gold and Copper Price Trends (2000 – 2026)

Chart 2: Gold-to-Copper Ratio vs ISM Manufacturing

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