Daily Macro

Macro Notes - Gold Volatility is Surging

February 10, 2026

Saakshi Mehta

Vice President, ETF & Alternatives Strategy

Gold prices are making new highs, but so is gold volatility. Gold’s 30‑day volatility jumped above 45% at the end of January, the highest since 2008. This spike is a stress signal, not a broad risk‑off move.

Historically, gold and US equity volatility have moved together, but Chart 1 shows the latest observation sits well above the trend. The divergence matters because it suggests concentrated hedging demand rather than widespread de‑risking. Markets are paying for protection while maintaining equity exposure.

This reflects rising macro uncertainty – shifting rate expectations, stickier inflation, and persistent geopolitical risk. That uncertainty is being expressed through gold, which remains the preferred hedge when macro signals are mixed.

In simple words, investors are adding insurance, not exiting risk. Investors looking to add defensive ballast without reducing equity exposure can consider gold exposure through ZGLD or ZWGD.

Chart 1: Gold Volatility Spike Outruns Equity Volatility

Weekly data starting in 2016
Source: CBOE, Bloomberg, BMO GAM

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