Daily Macro

Macro Notes - H1-B: How Big of a Market Story is This?

September 24, 2025

Bipan Rai

Managing Director, Head of ETF & Alternatives Strategy

Since the Trump administration’s announcement over the weekend, there has been no shortage of speculation on what the $100k fee for new applicants will ultimately mean.

Naturally, a lot of eyes are on Tech firms given the relatively higher reliance on H1-B visas to employ foreign professionals in the sector. The first chart below shows the total number of H1-B applicants so far in 2025 – and to no surprise it’s dominated by Tech firms.

But if we compare the total number of H1-B petitions by the total number of employees at each of these firms (which the table below does), we see that the scale of the labour force affected is still rather small. Of course, this is a rather crude statistic that doesn’t quite capture the ‘specialized knowledge’ or skillset that these visas are meant for, but it does tell us that this likely isn’t a market-relevant theme in the here and now.

Does it lead to competitiveness issues down the road in key spaces (like AI)? Absolutely. But this shouldn’t get in the way of near-term Tech/Mag7 outperformance.

Chart 1 – Total H1-B Petition Approvals in 2025 (Mag 7 firms are in red)

Table 1 – Percentage of Labor Force with H1-B Visas for Top Applicant Firms

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