Daily Macro

Macro Notes - On Population Growth in Canada and What it Means Longer-Term

September 25, 2025

Bipan Rai

Managing Director, Head of ETF & Alternatives Strategy

Canada’s population is estimated to have reached over 41.65 million people as July 1^st of this year. That would equate to a stunning ~10% increase since 2020 and ~16.7% increase over the past ten years.

But the real story is that population growth has been slowing on a quarterly basis of late. Of course, the primary reasons for that are related to measures taken by the federal government (reduced PR targets, caps on temporary residents, etc).

Over the long-term, this will play a significant role in determining the level of potential output for the Canadian economy through a few different channels. Those include:

The size of the labour force
Aggregate demand
Productivity gains via innovation and investment

And remember that over the long-term, there is an indirect relationship between aggregate corporate earnings and the potential output of an economy. In a de-globalized world, that link should strengthen over time.

Chart – Quarterly Population Growth in Canada Over Time

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