BMO ETFs Income Model Strategy Report (Q2 2026)
All prices, returns and portfolio weights are as of market close on March 31, 2026, unless otherwise indicated.
Apr 6, 2026Leaning into the Canadian Curve
- The fixed income backdrop remains uneven across North America as we see a more supportive setup for Canada as opposed to the U.S. – especially in the front-end of the curve.
- In our view, the Bank of Canada is likely to remain on pause for the next several meetings. That is largely because the impact of the energy price could exacerbate the degree of economic slack in the Canadian economy – offsetting any rise in incomes from the energy sector.
- And as the CAD swaps market has moved to price in rate hikes for the BoC this year, the front-end of the cash curve looks relatively cheap. This creates a tactical opportunity to add exposure in short‑and mid‑term Canadian duration. To capitalize on that view, we are initiating a long position in ZFS (BMO Short Federal Bond Index ETF) at 10%.
- Further out the curve, we remain mindful that term premium risk has not disappeared. Long‑end supply dynamics and global spillovers can still reprice duration quickly, which keeps us biased toward parts of the curve where carry is steadier and the policy signal is clearer.
- Another notable change is that we are exiting ZUAG.F (BMO US Aggregate Bond Index ETF – Hedged Units). With our current view that the U.S. dollar (USD) may hold up better in the months ahead, we prefer not to maintain a structure that would mute potential currency upside.
- We are also upgrading ZBI (BMO Canadian Bank Income Index ETF) to 25% to strengthen the income profile while staying in a familiar domestic credit complex.
Table 1 – Income Portfolio for Q2 2026
ETF Name |
Ticker |
Weight |
Duration |
Yield-to-Maturity |
Management |
Exposure |
Position |
15.0% |
6.81 |
3.66% |
0.09% |
Canada |
Core |
||
20.0% |
3.17 |
5.70% |
0.45% |
Canada |
Core |
||
25.0% |
2.00 |
4.04% |
0.25% |
Canada |
Core |
||
10.0% |
0.26 |
6.07% |
0.40% |
United States |
Tactical |
||
10.0% |
2.81 |
3.12% |
0.08% |
Canada |
Tactical |
||
20.0% |
0.13 |
0.20% |
United States |
Tactical |
|||
Total Portfolio |
100.0% |
2.49 |
3.62% |
0.25% |
Source: BMO Global Asset Management, as of March 31, 2026. The portfolio holdings are subject to change without notice and only represent a percentage of portfolio holdings. They are not recommendations to buy or sell any particular security.
Table 2 – Changes from Q1 2026
Sell/Trim |
Ticker |
Old Weight |
(%) |
New Weight |
15% |
-15% |
0% |
||
| Buy/Add | ||||
| BMO Canadian Bank Income Index ETF | 20% | 5% | 25% | |
| BMO Short Federal Bond Index ETF | 0% | 10% | 10% |
Source: BMO Global Asset Management, as of March 31, 2026. The portfolio holdings are subject to change without notice and only represent a percentage of portfolio holdings. They are not recommendations to buy or sell any particular security.
Table 3 – Performance of Holdings
Fund name |
Ticker |
Year-to-Date |
1-Month |
6-Month |
1-Year |
5-Year |
10-Year |
Since |
Inception |
2.09% |
1.26% |
8.02% |
17.76% |
8.89% |
9.26% |
3.69% |
2012-11-14 |
||
2.14% |
1.61% |
3.52% |
2.10% |
0.61% |
1.89% |
2.42% |
2014-02-10 |
||
1.16% |
0.80% |
2.06% |
2.94% |
1.56% |
1.40% |
1.73% |
2009-10-20 |
||
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
2025-04-30 |
||
-0.54% |
-0.97% |
2.27% |
5.33% |
7.03% |
6.01% |
5.27% |
2014-02-10 |
||
1.20% |
0.43% |
3.16% |
5.41% |
— |
— |
4.32% |
2022-02-07 |
BMO Global Asset Management. As of March 31, 2026.
Chart 1 - Credit Summary

Chart 2 - Term Summary

Disclaimers
For Advisor Use Only.
The portfolio holdings and asset allocations are subject to change without notice and individual holdings only represent a small percentage of portfolio holdings. They are not recommendations to buy or sell any particular security.
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