Sector ETFs

Sector portfolio: Real Estate’s Time to Shine

Dec. 9, 2025
  • Over the past month, the sectoral theme of note has been the rotation out of cyclicals and into defensives. This has been most evident in the performance of Health Care (up over 9% in November) versus Tech (down 4.4%).
  • While we continue to like staying overweight Health Care, we also want to pay tribute to other sectors that show a favourable revenue profile but are still undervalued.
  • One particular sector that projects favourably over the coming period is Real Estate. 
  • Indeed, revenues for the sector are expected to grow by near 7% in 2026 – which would put it right behind Tech and Telecoms (Chart 3). The kicker for this particular sector is that valuation is still fairly cheap (Chart 4).
  • And while 7% growth may not sound like much, consider that other sectors that show similar trajectories (Discretionary) are trading at much higher multiples.
  • Another important factor working in favour of Real Estate is the expectation of lower rates going forward. 
  • We’re on the record as saying that we don’t think the Fed should be easing, but we’ll acknowledge that cuts are a potential likelihood as we enter 2026. The prospect of lower interest rates will mean cheaper financing for the sector – providing relief for debt-heavy balance sheets at the very least.
  • For the portfolio: We are making the following changes…

    • Tech: We are moving from overweight to neutral.
    • Discretionary: We are increasing our weight slightly relative to last month. However, our position is still underweight.
    • Energy: We have shifted from underweight to neutral.
    • Utilities: We have shifted from overweight to neutral.
    • Real Estate: We have shifted from neutral to overweight.

Sector Upgrades or Overweights:

Chart 1 – BMO ETF Sector Portfolio for December 2025

  Index Sector Portfolio Difference Weighting Change from Last Month
S&P 500 100.01% 100.00%      
Tech 34.74% 35.00% 0.26% Neutral -2.50%
Financials 13.10% 15.00% 1.90% Overweight 0.00%
Comms. 10.65% 10.00% -0.65% Neutral 0.00%
Health care 9.61% 12.00% 2.39% Overweight -0.50%
Disc. 10.34% 7.50% -2.84% Underweight 1.00%
Industrials 8.06% 6.50% -1.56% Underweight 0.00%
Energy 2.88% 2.50% -0.38% Neutral 1.50%
Materials 1.66% 1.50% -0.16% Neutral 0.50%
Utilities 2.29% 2.50% 0.21% Neutral -3.00%
Real estate 1.85% 5.00% 3.15% Overweight 3.00%
Staples 4.83% 2.50% -2.33% Underweight 0.00%

Source: BMO Global Asset Management, December 2025. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. The portfolio holdings are subject to change without notice.

Chart 2 – BMO ETF Sector Portfolio Weights Relative to the S&P 500

Source: BMO Global Asset Management, December 2025. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. The portfolio holdings are subject to change without notice.

Chart 3 - Expected Revenue Growth by Sector in 2026

Source: BMO Global Asset Management, Bloomberg, as of December 3, 2025. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. The portfolio holdings are subject to change without notice.

Chart 4 – Earnings and Valuation

Earnings Forward P/E
Expected (Y/Y%) Last Month Change (%) Next 12m Z-Score
S&P 500 14.60% 16.79% -2.19% 25.13 2.25
Tech 39.42% 35.19% 4.23% 34.36 2.244
Communications 11.66% 11.93% -0.27% 24.36 2.121
Financials 8.00% 8.42% -0.41% 17.36 1.183
Utilities 11.34% 13.38% -2.04% 19.95 1.407
Real Estate 5.66% 6.33% -0.67% 19.79 -0.372
Discretionary 9.11% 10.98% -1.87% 31.32 0.98
Energy 9.07% 9.51% -0.43% 17.3 -0.15
Industrials 11.85% 16.96% -5.10% 26.89 1.6
Healthcare 6.55% 7.97% -1.42% 19.96 0.983
Staples 6.21% 6.56% -0.35% 22.44 1.523
Materials 21.75% 28.90% -7.15% 22.26 0.841

Source: BMO Global Asset Management, Bloomberg, as of November 28, 2025. Y/Y = year over year. P/E refers to Price-to-Earnings Ratio, which analysts use as a valuation metric. The forward P/E ratio (or forward price-to-earnings ratio) divides the current share price of a company by the estimated future (“forward”) earnings per share (EPS) of that company. Z-Score is a measure of how much a data point varies from the average of the entire data set. A positive z-score says the data point is above average. A negative z-score says the data point is below average. The closer the Z-score is to zero, the closer the value is to the mean. Red = more bearish signal. Green = more bullish signal. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.

Disclaimers

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The Select Sector SPDR Trust consists of eleven separate investment portfolios (each a Select Sector SPDR ETF” or an ETF” and collectively the Select Sector SPDR ETFs” or the ETFs”). Each Select Sector SPDR ETF is an index fund” that invests in a particular sector or group of industries represented by a specified Select Sector Index. The companies included in each Select Sector Index are selected on the basis of general industry classification from a universe of companies defined by the S&P 500®. The investment objective of each ETF is to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of publicly traded equity securities of companies in a particular sector or group of industries, as represented by a specified market sector index. 

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