Over the past few months, we’ve shifted from a defensive posture to a more neutral one. That reflects our view that the risks to U.S. large caps feel a bit more balanced than they have in previous months.
In our minds, the single most important macro development over the past month has been the Trump administration’s attempt to de-escalate the trade war. Of course, that has been reflected in markets – with the S&P 500 rallying off of its April 7 lows. Indeed, markets have taken their cue from talks between the U.S. and other countries, which have resulted in agreements (most notably with China). Even if such arrangements are temporary, the implicit message is that the U.S. is intent on trimming the extremes of its trade policy – only a few months since it began tariffing other countries’ goods imports.
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So here we are. Just a few short months after his inauguration, U.S. President Donald Trump has fired the opening salvo of a global trade war.
While precise estimates on the new U.S. average effective tariff rate vary, there is broad consensus that it is well north of 20%. That is a stark difference from where it was a few months back (around 2-3%), and it signals a return for the U.S. to restrictive trade policies not seen since the days of the Great Depression just under a century ago.
Momentum report