BMO Macro Regime Model – Strategy Report (Q3 2026)

All prices, returns and portfolio weights are as of market close on June 30, 2026, unless otherwise indicated.

Greenspan Was Early Too

In the late-1990s, the late Alan Greenspan coined the term irrational exuberance’ to describe mania around the dot-com boom. And to be sure, you can find traces of similar sentiment regarding the current artificial intelligence (AI) boom — with investors becoming more cautious on asset prices that have seemingly moved well beyond their fundamental values.

However, if you look close enough, there are several factors that are still working in favour of broad risk. In fact, we’d argue that these factors are still strong enough to offset extant concerns.

The Broadening’ Story Is Playing Out

The more you step back, the clearer it becomes that AI isn’t just a bullish theme for tech stocks in the U.S. Instead, it’s becoming apparent that adoption and integration of AI processes is supporting earnings across other regions as well. That largely explains why emerging markets (EM) earnings have accelerated by more than the U.S. so far this year (Chart 1). Additionally, outside of tech, we’re seeing sectors that are tethered to AI continue to perform (including industrials and financials).

The evidence of rotation (whether regional or sectoral) implies that demand for AI should continue. At the very least, that tells us that strong earnings momentum is likely not going away for another quarter or two.

Chart 1 – Year-to-Date Earnings Growth (Blended)
Chart 1 – Year-to-Date Earnings Growth (Blended)
Source: BMO Global Asset Management, Bloomberg, as of June 262026.


The Fundamental Story Is Still Strong and Liquidity Remains Ample

While concerns on elevated inflation remain justified in some major economies, the downside risks to growth haven’t played out as originally feared. That is most likely due to the heavy degree of fiscal spending over the past year and a half. In any case, composite Purchasing Managers’ Indexes across many of the major markets are above the 50 mark (most notably in the U.S.) – which points to momentum for real activity.

At the same time, potential household investing bandwidth remains sizeable – especially in the United States. The total amount of money market assets held is just under $8 trillion with close to 40% of that belonging to retail investors. Also, U.S. commercial bank deposits are growing providing yet another potential source for investment deployment if equities go on the defensive. Keep in mind, that household leverage ratios are also lower than they have been in prior periods as well.

What this tells us is that we’re still likely in a high growth, high inflation’ type of regime. That should bode well for cyclical equities and select emerging market opportunities.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Policy Is Still Expansionary

On an inflation-adjusted basis, the Fed funds rate is currently at 22 bps — well below levels that are concerning. For instance, as recently as two years ago this same gauge was around 260 bps. And just before the tech bubble burst and the global financial crisis began, this gauge was 430 bps and 330 bps respectively (see Chart 2).

Chart 2 – The Real (Inflation Adjusted) Fed Funds Rate* Over Time
Chart 2 – The Real (Inflation Adjusted) Fed Funds Rate* Over Time
*Real Fed Funds Rate = Effective Nominal Fed Funds Rate – Core PCE % (year-over-year).
Source: BMO Global Asset Management, Bloomberg, as of June 262026

Our own feel is that the next move by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is for a rate hike, but there’s plenty of runway before the real Fed funds rate gets to problematic levels for broad risk.

Are there reasons to be cautious? Of course. For one, most of the optimism in the market hinges on the centrality’ of the AI theme and ensuring that the total amount of spend is justified by monetizable productivity gains. Second, there is the risk that net equity supply could turn positive given the sheer volume of IPOs (SpaceX and potentially OpenAI, Anthropic) as well as follow-on offerings. What’s more is that US Treasury and corporate bond issuance is set to remain elevated as well. Indeed, the market is being asked to absorb a lot — which risks supply indigestion and reallocation from other holdings.

For now, these are risks to monitor. If we do get a sense that AI demand is ebbing or that supply indigestion is becoming a theme, then we’ll be quick to adjust our tactical positions. In our minds, strong earnings momentum, supportive fundamentals, ample liquidity and an expansionary monetary/​fiscal policy backdrop portend further equity market gains from here.

Remember that while Greenspan’s call of irrational exuberance ended up being right in the late-90s, it still took a while to get there.

Asset Allocation
  • The output for our Macro Regime model is displayed in Chart 3. Instead of migrating into a mild stagflation’-like backdrop, the model suggests that conditions have moved further towards the reflation’ territory. That reflects the stronger growth surprises that we’ve seen in leading indicators for large economies as well as stickier inflation pressures.
  • For our portfolio construction process, this means we’ll stay overweight the growth’ (equities) and inflation’ (alts) sleeves of our portfolio. Much like prior quarters, concerns about current inflation pressures also means we’re underweight duration/​income’ (fixed income).
  • Relative to Q2, we’re bumping up our allocation to equities to 65% (from 61%), whilst trimming our allocation to both alts (13% from 14%) and fixed income (22% from 25%). From a risk management perspective, equities now make up around 72.9% of the overall risk of the portfolio while fixed income (6.75%) and alts (19.67%) combine for the balance.
  • From an FX lens, we see the risks to U.S. dollar (USD)/Canadian dollar (CAD) as better balanced from current levels relative to where we saw them heading into Q2. As such, we’ll be hedging our exposure to U.S. fixed income. Our U.S. equities exposure will remain unhedged for the time being.
Chart 3 – Macro Regime Model Output for Q3 2026
Chart 3 – Macro Regime Model Output for Q3 2026
Source: BMO Global Asset Management, as of June 262026.


Fixed Income
Equities
  • For the most part, we are keeping our core positions steady from Q2. The only minor change is that we’ve trimmed our allocation to ZEA (BMO MSCI EAFE Index ETF) slightly to allocate a bit more to our position in ZEM (BMO MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF). We remain constructive on upstream AI firms – which have helped lift EM-tracking funds given the importance of a few names in South Korea and Taiwan.
  • We’re also adding a new tactical position in ZWB (BMO Covered Call Canadian Banks ETF). We’ve written several times in the past that the strong capital positions of Canadian banks offer them a fair degree of flexibility when it comes to business decisions and supporting share prices. Current valuations remain high, which is why we’re opting to go with a covered call strategy as opposed to a beta strategy.
Alts/Non-Traditional Hybrids
Table 1 – BMO Macro Regime Model Portfolio for Q3 2026
Ticker   ETF Name               Sector Positioning  Management Fee  Weight (%)  Volatility Contribution 
                    Fixed Income                                                                                                     
ZDB BMO Discount Bond Index ETF  Fixed Income  Core  0.09%  8.00% 2.83%
ZUAG.F BMO US Aggregate Bond Index ETF Fixed Income  Core  0.08% 8.00% 2.89%
ZBI BMO Canadian Bank Income Index ETF Fixed Income  Tactical 0.25% 6.00% 1.21%
                Total Fixed Income                                                                           22.00% 6.93%
                    Equities                                                                                       
ZUQ BMO MSCI USA High Quality Index ETF  Equity  Core 0.30% 23.00% 20.60%
ZCN BMO S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index ETF Equity  Core 0.05% 20.00% 20.50%
ZEA BMO MSCI EAFE Index ETF Equity  Core 0.20% 7.00% 9.56%
ZEM BMO MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF Equity  Tactical 0.25% 6.00% 13.83%
ZLU BMO Low Volatility US Equity ETF Equity  Tactical 0.30% 4.00% 3.00%
ZWB BMO Covered Call Canadian Banks ETF Equity  Tactical 0.65% 5.00% 5.43%
                Total Equity                                                                          65.00% 72.91%
                    Non-Traditional Hybrids                                                                                                     
ZWGD BMO Covered Call Spread Gold Bullion ETF Hybrid/Alt Tactical  0.65% 2.00% 3.61%
ZGIF BMO Global Infrastructure Fund ETF Hybrid/Alt Tactical  1.05% 5.00% 4.23%
ZCOM BMO Broad Commodity ETF Hybrid/Alt Tactical  0.65% 6.00% 12.31%
            Total Alternatives                13.00% 20.16%
                Total Cash                0.00% 0.00%
                  Portfolio                                              0.26% 100.00% 100.00%

Source: BMO Global Asset Management, as of June 30, 2026. Model portfolio for illustrative purposes only. The information contained herein is not, and should not be construed as, investment, tax or legal advice to any party. These are not recommendations to buy or sell any particular security. Particular investments and/or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to the individual’s investment objectives and professional advice should be obtained with respect to any circumstance.

Performance of Portfolio
Source: BMO Global Asset Management, as of June 302026.


Portfolio Changes
Table 2 – Changes to the Macro Regime Portfolio (from Q2 to Q3 2026)

Sell/​Trim

Ticker

Old weight

(%)

New weight

BMO US Aggregate Bond Index ETF

ZUAG

5.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

BMO Short-Term US TIPS Index

ZTIP

5.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

BMO Canadian Bank Income Index ETF

ZBI

7.00%

-1.00%

6.00%

BMO MSCI EAFE Index ETF

ZEA

9.00%

-2.00%

7.00%

BMO Covered Call Spread Gold Bullion ETF

ZWGD

4.00%

-2.00%

2.00%

Buy/​Add
Ticker
Old weight
%
New weight
BMO US Aggregate Bond Index ETF - Hedged
0.00%
8.00%
8.00%
BMO MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF
5.00%
1.00%
6.00%
BMO Covered Call Canadian Banks ETF
0.00%
5.00%
5.00%
BMO Global Infrastructure Fund ETF
4.00%
1.00%
5.00%

Source: BMO Global Asset Management, as of June 30, 2026. Model portfolio for illustrative purposes only. The information contained herein is not, and should not be construed as, investment, tax or legal advice to any party. These are not recommendations to buy or sell any particular security. Particular investments and/​or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to the individual’s investment objectives and professional advice should be obtained with respect to any circumstance.

Table 3 – Asset Allocation Splits Relative to Benchmark

Current Weight

Benchmark

Fixed Income

22%

30%

Underweight

Equities

65%

60%

Overweight

Alts/​Hybrids

13%

10%

Overweight

Source: BMO Global Asset Management, as of June 302026.

Table 4 – Fixed Income Sleeve Breakdown

Q3 2026

Q2 2026

Weighted Average Term

6.87

5.11

Weighted Average Duration 

5.20

4.41

Weighted Average Coupon (%)

3.03

2.49

Annualized Dist. Yield (%)

2.86

3.02

Weighted Average Yield to Maturity (%)

3.96

3.98

Source: BMO Global Asset Management, as of June 30, 2026. Model portfolio for illustrative purposes only. The information contained herein is not, and should not be construed as, investment, tax or legal advice to any party. These are not recommendations to buy or sell any particular security. Particular investments and/​or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to the individual’s investment objectives and professional advice should be obtained with respect to any circumstance.

Table 5 – Standard Performance Data

Ticker

Year-to-Date

1-Month

3-Month

6-Month

1-Year

3-Year

5-Year

10-Year

Since Inception

Inception Date

ZCN

10.59%

2.51%

1.82%

12.03%

35.94%

24.54%

15.23%

12.74%

10.02%

2009-05-29

ZEA

9.89%

3.94%

0.50%

10.80%

22.60%

18.23%

11.45%

9.76%

8.92%

2014-02-10

ZWB

16.34%

3.97%

10.65%

21.64%

50.24%

26.66%

14.03%

12.36%

10.97%

2011-01-28

ZEM

25.83%

9.88%

10.52%

26.39%

55.45%

24.98%

9.77%

10.90%

7.23%

2009-10-20

ZLU

9.34%

3.75%

-1.62%

5.83%

15.03%

12.70%

11.40%

9.99%

13.53%

2013-03-19

ZUQ

9.00%

5.34%

6.63%

7.26%

24.80%

22.51%

16.50%

16.72%

16.62%

2014-11-05

ZDB

1.58%

1.37%

-0.55%

0.20%

2.46%

4.04%

0.63%

1.66%

2.32%

2014-02-10

ZCOM*

2025-10-21

ZBI

1.70%

0.69%

0.50%

1.97%

5.45%

8.39%

4.18%

2022-02-07

ZWGD

3.32%

0.19%

-11.55%

5.48%

33.21%

30.25%

2025-05-22

ZUAG

0.99%

1.84%

-0.19%

-1.03%

5.67%

4.35%

4.23%

2023-01-23

ZGIF

7.13%

-1.76%

-3.54%

3.67%

13.05%

16.43%

2023-06-27[JS1]

* Returns are not available as there is less than one year’s performance data. Source: BMO Global Asset Management, as of June 30, 2026. The portfolio holdings are subject to change without notice and only represent a percentage of portfolio holdings. They are not recommendations to buy or sell any particular security.


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