ZTIP - BMO Short-Term US TIPS Index ETF

In the Q3 edition of this report, we were more constructive on our outlook for the U.S. fixed income space relative to Canada. This reflected our view at the time that the market was underpricing the risk of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts in the fall, while the Bank of Canada (BoC) was likely at the end of its cycle.

Fast forward three months, we’ve largely seen this story play out. U.S. rates have outperformed as Canadian dollar (CAD)-U.S. dollar (USD) spreads have tightened aggressively across the curve.

As the global trade paradigm shifts, countries are reassessing old economic configurations.

Consider, that with the United States retreating from free trade, developed market economies can now expect the contribution from net trade to economic growth to decline in the coming years. Indeed, those same economies will now need to chart a different course as the degree of access to U.S. markets has changed dramatically.

Given the backdrop, the priority for our fixed income portfolio is to focus on strong credit and to optimize yield at a shorter duration.

In the U.S., data that tracks the real economy appears to be slowing, but we don’t get the sense that the Federal Reserve is in any hurry to ease policy rates. That’s largely due to the potential from ​‘stickier’ consumer prices as tariffs start to make their presence felt.