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Cash flow that shines
This is the second quarter for our Tax efficient portfolio.* This portfolio is meant to follow the same fundamental framework as our Balanced Portfolio, though the instruments are adjusted to be more tax efficient for Canadian investors.
Ever been to a really good party that you didn’t want to end? Remember that feeling you get when the lights start to come back on, the bar is closing and the music is winding down? There’s a slight wistfulness that the fun is over and it’s time to go home – even if you feel like it’s still a bit too early and want to keep dancing.
In our first ‘Tax Efficient’ Portfolio, we are following the same fundamental rationale as our ‘Balanced Portfolio’ with a few caveats. First, we are prioritizing capital gains over income. This means focusing more on discount bonds in the fixed income sleeve of our portfolio while also continuing to prioritize shorter duration products.
As an example, we have removed ZBI and replaced it with ZCDB (BMO Corporate Discount Bond ETF) at a lower weight. We are also increasing the weight of ZDB in this portfolio to 10% (from 5% in our balanced fund).
Second, we are prioritizing Canadian and U.S. underlying holdings over international investments. That means a greater weight for core exposures in ZCN and ZUQ. At the same time, we are removing ZIQ and ZEM.
For the tactical exposures, we have elected to go with a covered call strategy for Tech ZWT (BMO Covered Call Technology ETF) as well as a covered call strategy for Utilities ZWU (BMO Covered Call Utilities ETF). Both allow us to earn tax efficient income in sectors that we think should still continue to perform.
Additionally, both of the aforementioned strategies will help to make up for the relatively lower income that comes with utilizing discount bond ETFs in the fixed income sleeve.
We are also removing our exposure to ZGI (BMO Global Infrastructure Index ETF) and reallocating that to ZLSC (BMO Long Short Canadian Equity ETF).
There is a deep contradiction between perception and reality that is currently playing out in the U.S. economic landscape. In many ways, it reminds us of the setting to the famous 1999 movie, The Matrix (a friendly spoiler alert for those that haven’t seen it – skip ahead to the next paragraph). In the movie, the world in which the protagonist wakes up is a simulated reality powered by an engine that most don’t see. This “invisible engine” dynamic helps us square the inconsistency between the prevailing narrative of U.S. economic fragility and incoming data that shows resilience.
Despite the recovery in broad risk over the past few months, the underlying issue remains the same. The decades-long integration of global trade — with the United States at the hub — has been permanently disrupted. And unless we see a complete reversal from the Trump administration, the current regime of higher trade barriers is likely here to stay.
What’s more, we also appear to be in the early stages of something more nefarious — a capital war. As congressional members pass the “One, Big, Beautifull Bill Act”, a provision like Section 899, even if excluded, should send a reminder to non-U.S. investors that foreign investment is becoming less welcome than it has been in the past.
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The end of the year is a special time. The slowing modulation of the markets gives many an analyst time to unplug, which inevitably leads to reflection about what the next year will bring. And as ideas begin to take shape, convictions start to form and a general sense of where the market is headed is reached.
It is almost always a humbling exercise.
For instance, just consider a subset of the important macro/market events from this year
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